IPL 4 - Nobody's in, nobody's out.....yet!

Please note that after the MI-DD game on 8th May:

No team has yet qualified for the next round in IPL 4.

All teams still have a chance of making it to the next round in IPL4.

A year goes by so fast! Seems like only yesterday when I was ridiculing TOI for qualifying MI to next round two games before they actually did!

http://window-anand.blogspot.com/2010/04/ipl-and-how-wrong-can-one-be-times-of.html

And here I am again, saying almost the same thing again!

After the match today, our learned commentators were shouting at the top of their voice that MI is through to next round and Delhi is out. Bull shit. Both are technically incorrect. MI is still not through and DD is still not out. In fact, like my last year's post, MI might still not be 100% sure of moving to next round even if we assume that they win their next game! Lets take things case by case.

Mumbai are not through yet!

There are 10 teams and four teams will qualify. Par score would be 7 wins, 14 points if 5 teams were to qualify. It doesn't take a genius to doubt if somebody claims that 8 wins will assure you a top 4 finish. In a not so very improbable scenario, the points tally can look like this:
RCB - 19, KKR - 18, CSK - 18, RR - 17, MI - 16, KXIP - 16, DC - 12, KTK - 10, DD - 10, PWI - 4

We don't even have to go to net run rates to knock my favourite team out :)

What is worse that assume MI has already won its next game against Punjab. Still the points table can look like this:

RCB - 18, KKR - 18, CSK - 18, RR - 18, MI - 18, DC - 12, KTK - 12, DD - 12, KXIP - 8, PWI - 6

This is very improbable as it requires RR and RCB match to be washed out again. But the point is that 18 points also do not guarantee a next round qualification since 5 teams can get 18 points easily.

DD can still make it!

Delhi is most probably out, agreed. But please don't say that they are knocked out. If they win all there remaining matches, there still is finite probability that they go through. In one of the scenarios in which DD goes through, the points table would look like:
MI - 24, CSK - 18, KKR -16, DD - 14, KTK - 14, RCB - 13, PWI - 12, RR - 11, KXIP - 10, DC - 8

So can Deccan and even Pune!

Same is the story for the other two teams with 7 losses. If they win all the remaining matches and end up on 14 points, they can still qualify. For example, in one of the scenarios in which Deccan qualifies, the points table would look like:

MI - 22, RCB - 19, DC - 14, KKR - 14, CSK - 14, RR - 13, KTK - 12, KXIP - 12, DD - 10, PWI - 10

And another scenario in which Pune qualifies, the points table would look like:
MI - 24, RCB - 19, PWI - 14, KKR - 14, CSK - 14, RR - 13, KTK - 12, KXIP - 12, DD - 10, PWI - 8

Doing this was fun. But I am surprised with so many intelligent people around, how can nobody else notice this! Don't the commentators think before they make such huge statemetns? Hmmmmmmm.....!

- Anand Gautam

8th May 2011